How to Estimate the Impact of TV Commercials on a Website


November 17, 2020


3:05 pm


Classic TV commercials are a building block for creating brand awareness. But some companies also run TV commercials to directly attract users to their website and close a deal. In order to estimate the impact of TV commercials on a website, the expected number of web sessions are compared to the number of web sessions right after the commercial was broadcast. But it’s not as simple as it sounds. TV commercials might be broadcast in parallel on multiple small TV stations, so signals are feeble and overlapping. In this talk, Christian shows how to model the problem as a non-parametric estimation of intensity measures of multiple Poisson point processes where only the sum of the processes is observed. You will see how to calibrate the estimation procedure in the absence of ground truth and run simulation studies to ensure that the tuned method provides unbiased results. The presented methodology has supported marketing decision makers to adjust media spend on a variety of large direct TV campaigns.

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